Large public corporations and their managers have come under
increased scrutiny since the great recession. They have taken the easy steps of
reducing costs and returning cash to shareholders. Unfortunately, they still
face revenue growth problems, excess capacity, changing technology and
regulation, and lagging performance. These problems have depressed relative
share prices and attracted the interest of third parties. Hostile takeovers bids
from strategic acquirers have increased to pre crisis 2007 levels of 20%+ of
M&A. Activists like Daniel Loeb’s Third Point have raised record amounts to
fund new campaigns to instigate strategic change. Understandably, managers are
concerned about this increasingly active market for corporate control. They are
reluctant to change formerly successful business models even though conditions
have changed due to organizational
inertia.
These managers are seeking political support to protect
their positions. They allege hostiles and activists with their alleged short term
focus harm the long-term value of their firms and ultimately the country. Thus,
they evoke stakeholder and long-term holding requirements arguments to slow the
process; they just need more time to prove that everything will alright. As Ralph
highlighted, allowing alternative stakeholders control over capital supplied by
shareholders allows one group to risk the capital supplied by someone
else-never a good idea.
Equally unwise is to discriminate against investors based on
their holding period. Examples include granting long-term shareholder enhanced
voting rights as in France
or taxing short term investors at higher rates as proposed by Hillary.
When it comes to bearing risk the length of ownership is not a factor. There is
no grace period during which new shareholders are shielded from management
miscues. The real problem with so-called “short-termism” is poor governance and
weak board oversight regarding short term orientated incentive compensation
plans. Many public boards have been “captured” by management.
The agency
cost problem with large slow growth public firms was pointed out over 25
years ago by Michael Jensen in his seminal article.
The eclipse is a work in process. Attempts to inhibit the market for corporate
control will retard reform efforts. It is puzzling that we do not see more going
private transactions for large public low growth firms (like Buffett-3G Heinz
and Kraft acquisitions) if markets are so short term. This is especially
compelling since they no longer need public capital market access to fund their
limited growth opportunities
An interesting legal development is taking place which may
offer some new solutions to the agency cost-governance breakdown. The
development is outlined in a recent book.
Business form matters because it impacts governance and agency costs. The
statutory based corporate form may be inefficient for mature public firms. Contract
based limited life alternatives like limited liability companies (LLC), REITS and
limited partnership
do away with permanent capital and encourage the disgorgement of cash. They
require investors to “re-up” in new vehicles if they believe in management.
The problem of failed attempts to adjust to a volatile
business environment (Schumpeter's
Ghosts) is highlighted in a provocative new BCG
report. The life expectancy of domestic public firms has declined by almost 50%
over the past 30 years due to bankruptcy, liquidation, M&A, LBO, or other
causes. The 5 year morality rate or exit risk for for U.S. public firms is now over 30%
compared to just 5% on the 1960s.
There is no escaping change. Not everyone can or will
adjust. The agency problem in public firms complicates the problem. The market
for corporate control and evolving legal structures are some market solutions
addressing the problem. They are preferred over political “solutions”, which
merely try to hold back change.
J
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